Day 294 · Oct 20

The Birthday of Arthur R. Miller (1934) — Mathematics of Law

Arthur Miller was a prominent legal scholar who championed the use of mathematics in law — from statistical evidence to class action certification. The mathematics of law includes probability (beyond reasonable doubt), sampling (jury selection), and game theory (plea bargaining). Miller argued that courts must understand statistical reasoning to avoid miscarriages of justice, such as the prosecutor’s fallacy (confusing P(evidence | innocence) with P(innocence | evidence)). His work helped bring quantitative literacy into the courtroom.

What is the ‘prosecutor’s fallacy’? If DNA matches one in a million people, that does not mean the defendant is 999,999 times more likely to be guilty — because it ignores the prior probability of guilt and the size of the potential suspect pool.

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