The Mathematics of the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)

During the crisis, the US and USSR used game theory and risk analysis. Thomas Schelling’s ‘The Strategy of Conflict’ introduced the concept of the ‘threat that leaves something to chance’. The ‘hawk‑dove’ game models the situation. Probability of nuclear war was estimated using subjective probabilities (Bayesian reasoning). The crisis ended when both sides backed down – a Nash equilibrium. The mathematics of deterrence and brinkmanship is still studied to prevent future crises. Sometimes, rationality and mathematics save the world.