Day 300 · Oct 26

The Birthday of Hillary Clinton (1947) — Mathematics of Public Opinion

Hillary Clinton’s career in law and politics involved extensive use of polling and statistical analysis. The mathematics of public opinion includes sampling theory (random samples, margin of error), weighting (adjusting for demographics), and trend analysis (time series). Polling aggregators like FiveThirtyEight use Bayesian methods to combine multiple polls and predict election outcomes. Clinton’s 2016 campaign, like all modern campaigns, relied on data analytics to target voters, allocate resources, and test messaging. Mathematics is the silent strategist in every election.

What is ‘margin of error’? For a simple random sample of size n, the margin of error is approximately 1/√n. A sample of 1,000 people gives a margin of error of about ±3%. Why doesn’t a larger margin mean the poll is wrong?

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